Russia's options seem exhausted

CLIFFORD J LEVY; ELLEN BARRY
International Herald Tribune
01-26-2011
Russia's options seem exhausted
Byline: CLIFFORD J LEVY; ELLEN BARRY
Type: News

The Russian leadership is facing the bleak conclusion that its policies to end unrest in the North Caucasus, either by striking terrorists or through social programs, are not working.

A day after an airport suicide bombing that investigators suspect was organized by Islamic militants, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin on Tuesday vowed retribution. President Dmitri A. Medvedev lashed out at low-ranking subordinates at the airport for failing to stop the attack, and a raft of initiatives was announced to prevent future terrorist acts.
Even so, the government seemed to be facing a bleak calculus.

None of its strategies for stamping out the long-running insurgency in southern Russia -- neither harsh measures favored by some in the security services nor social programs supported by many policy experts -- has yielded much success.

The bombing, which killed at least 35 people at the international airport, came less than a year after two suicide attacks on the subway system here. In the meantime, the unrest in the North Caucasus itself -- Chechnya and nearby Muslim regions -- endures.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the airport attack on Monday, but the authorities made clear that they thought that it was connected to the North Caucasus. There were conflicting reports about whether the bomber was a man or woman.

The government's frustration at its inability to quell the insurgency seemed especially apparent on Tuesday in remarks by Mr. Medvedev, who unexpectedly turned his ire on the management of Domodedovo Airport.

Mr. Medvedev went on national television to declare that the security precautions at the arrivals area where the attack occurred were so poor that the situation resembled "anarchy."

"Such a quantity of explosive material that was carried in or brought in -- that's not so easy to do," Mr. Medvedev said. "We must hold responsible those who have ties to the company that makes decisions, the management of the airport."

He did not explain why he did not hold top federal security officials responsible for not detecting these shortcomings beforehand.

Airport executives were so startled by Mr. Medvedev's criticism that they took the unusual step of publicly defending themselves.

For his part, Mr. Putin said in a separate appearance, "I have no doubt that this crime will be solved and that retribution is inevitable."

In recent years, the government has alternated between tough crackdowns in the North Caucasus and policies intended to address poverty, corruption and other problems that officials concede often contribute to the insurgency.

When Mr. Putin was president in the early part of the last decade, he was a champion of the more muscular approach. Violence in the North Caucasus -- and terrorism elsewhere in the country -- was answered with raw force and a consolidation of power by the Kremlin.

Mr. Medvedev has tended to swing in the other direction, speaking about focusing on what is often termed by Russian experts as the root causes of terrorism in the region.

Mr. Medvedev appointed a businessman -- not a general or security official -- as his special envoy to the region, and the government's tactics seemed to shift. The subway bombings last March came early in the experiment, and the Kremlin did not make a stark change of course.

The subway attack "was at the very start of the new strategy, and the feeling was that you needed to give it more time," said Pavel K. Baev, a senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo. "Now, I'm not sure they have any Plan B in Moscow, because a lot of their options are exhausted."

Mr. Baev said a military clampdown in the North Caucasus was not possible, in part because the police and military are already stretched thin in the rest of the country. And the soft-power approach introduced under Mr. Medvedev -- which emphasizes investment and job creation -- has hit a wall because of pervasive corruption, he said. With all these solutions foundering, the government seems to have given up seeking new strategies, he said.

"Maybe because it looks so hopeless that no one wants to think about it," Mr. Baev said.

Grigory Shvedov, editor in chief of Caucasian Knot, a respected Internet news service, said the government had failed in part because it would not loosen the security services' control over the region even as it tried to nurture social programs.

"They are trying to implement two different approaches that absolutely contradict each other," Mr. Shvedov said. "The bombing of Domodedovo shows the results of this contradiction."

Mr. Medvedev has voiced his impatience with the pace of change. The spring and summer brought a rise in attacks in the Caucasus. In August, Mr. Medvedev upbraided his hand-picked envoy, Aleksandr G. Khloponin, for failing to attract more investment to the region of Dagestan, near Chechnya. Mr. Khloponin acknowledged that the situation was "miserable."

Aleksei V. Malashenko, an expert on the region, said in an interview that Mr. Medvedev's ideas had collided with those of his mentor and ally, Mr. Putin.

"Putin and Medvedev can't approach the Caucasus independently," said Mr. Malashenko, of the Carnegie Moscow Center. "The one who is stronger is in charge, and right now, Putin is stronger. And this is why everything continues."

Meanwhile, he said, even the president himself and his top aides waver, unsure of what to do. In the end, there is no clearly outlined policy at all.

"Last spring, Medvedev said terrorists should be targeted with pinpoint blows," he said. "That was great. Three days later, he said the people who cook food for them and wash their clothes are terrorists as well. How can that be? It is one or the other."

Copyright International Herald Tribune Jan 26, 2011